Long War - More Early Game Strategy

More details on managing the strategy layer. Comments on launching satellites, painful realities in the air game, research paths, SHIVs vs. XP growth...

In my latest play through I am starting in the US with the “On Our Own” bonus (which means no bonus) and the strategy layer has been a bit of a struggle. I’ve adapted to having less money, and in so doing, I’ve learned a few things. For starters, not building SHIVs to save money is fine - March isn’t that tough. But trying to save money in the air game is not wise. I have fewer interceptors this campaign, and that has not worked out well.

One big discovery is that even without bonus money, launching 2 satellites in March is not so hard to pull off, though you do need a few things to go your way.

---

How to Launch 2 Satellites in March

I used to play with the Benefactor starting bonus (+ $500 at the start of the campaign), because this guaranteed I could build a Satellite Uplink and 2 satellites before the end of the first month, which meant I could purchase more interceptors in April, which meant I was able to shoot down more UFOs, which meant I got more money and XP and so on. I had thought that Benefactor vastly improved my ability to make all this happen… But no. All I really need to do is get the average mission schedule (fingers crossed) and collect a couple meld cannisters on the first few missions. Then just sell most of it.

Here is how it breaks down. Satellite Uplinks and Satellites each cost $200. So an Uplink and 2 satellites runs to $600. Starting funds are $300, so we need an additional $300, and we need it fast. Satellites take 25 days to build, uplinks 21 days; and so there are actually 2 deadlines:

• 1st deadline: start building 2nd satellite by ~2pm on 6th of March.¹

• 2nd deadline: start building uplink by ~3pm on 10th of March.²

To make the first deadline we need to get another mission by the 6th of the month, which usually happens.³ Then we need to get another mission by the 10th; again this usually happens.⁴ But we shouldn’t expect to get a third mission before the 2nd deadline. It might happen, but probably not.

Abductions and UFO missions have similar value, assuming we sell all the artifacts. The total sum varies, but a reasonable estimate of the reward money, sale of corpses, UFO parts, alloys, elerium, etc. from 2 missions will come very close to $300, but just shy. And that is why meld is crucial. Cannisters with only 5 meld are still worth $20 each - 2 of them should put us over the top.

A bad mission schedule in March is an unsurmountable roadblock, and only 1 satellite can be launched before April. If that happens, then build the satellite uplink next, and the 2nd satellite as soon as possible, for the interceptor discount in mid April (assuming you started in North America for the best continent bonus to rush).

---

Where the Hell are my Engineers?

There are a few more dice roll that can stunt economic growth, such as the 20 engineers needed for the next satellite uplink.

My plan is always to launch satellites in May, but more often than not, I don’t have the 20 engineers by May 10th to build another satellite uplink. Oftentimes, the council is stingy with their engineers. This is why I considered researching Alien Weaponry first in my other Long War - Early Game Strategy post, which should speed things along.

I am bringing this up again, because of something ugly that happened in my latest campaign. I researched Xenobiology first, and was predictably unable to make the May engineer deadline. But the engineers continued to be a no show, and so by June 9th I was still below the 20 engineer threshold - and couldn’t launch more satellites until July. Crap.

I have seen this only once before.⁵ And so while it is rare - it can happen. And for that reason I think it is worth researching Alien Materials early, which gives you a higher chance to get engineers as council rewards. This is what I usually do, but forgot this time, and instead raced to Beam Weapons. And paid for it when the Engineer dice rolls didn’t go my way.

When these things happen, I tell myself that it should balance out, and there is some good luck coming my way in the future… Perhaps things will go well in the air game? Or maybe not. Because, the early air game is usually a real s*** show.

---

Early Air Game is a S*** Show

Here are some highlights from my latest run.

-- APRIL --
 6th - Sc1 - Raider shot down. 77 days of repair.  (!!!)
17th - Sc3 - Raider shot down. 47 days of repair.
23rd - B1  - Destroyer. No go.
24th - Sc4 - Scout escaped.

-- MAY --
 1st - B1  - Fighter. No Go. Not enough interceptors.
 4th - Sc1 - Raider shot down. No crash site.
14th - H1  - Fighter shot down. No crash site.
18th - Sc4 - Scout escaped.
25th - Sc5 - Raider shot down. 53 days of repair.

-- JUNE --
 6th - B1  - Destroyer. No go.
 8th - B2  - Destroyer. No go.
10th - Sc1 - Raider escaped. 60d repair + 1 interceptor lost. Calls Hunt.
11th - Sc2 - Raider escaped.
15th - H2  - Fighter shot down. No crash site.
20th - H3  - Destroyer. No go. Failed to shoot down satellite.
22nd - B3  - Destroyer. No go.
24th - Sc5 - Raider. No go. Not enough interceptors. No hunt called in.

April goes well. It started off scary, with the very first UFO crushing my hangar, but then I had some good luck and only missed one downable UFO that month.

May doesn’t look too bad on paper - I skipped a bomber, missed a couple crash sites, and one scout escapes. What is missing from these notes is that all my laser cannon interceptors are severely damaged despite using defensive stance. It was uncanny - as soon as I got a few laser cannons in the air, the UFOs start hitting every single shot.

And so the real disaster happens in June. I have 5+ laser cannons, but they are rarely available. Also there are 4 destroyers in one month! Not that I cared about the 3 destroyers on bombing runs - I wouldn’t have challenged those bombing runs even had they been fighters, needing all my birds for those 4 Raiders… and then 3 of the Raiders escape. Oh, and I lose an interceptor because I am dumb… I guess I should be happy I didn’t lose a satellite as well. Crazy.

I had 17 interceptors by the end of June (bought 18 total). That sounds like a lot, but typically I buy about 20. In retrospect I should have sold more stuff, and bought more birds.

As bad as this was, it was not the worst early air game I’ve played through. We just need to power through it. The game is balanced such that these set backs won’t doom our campaign.

Eventually the air game gets straightened out. In July, with 8 laser cannons, every UFO is shot down.

---

Yes, SHIVs will Stunt the growth of your Barracks.

I have used SHIVs extensively in the past, and have argued that they did not significantly impede the growth of my barracks. My reasoning was that the presence of SHIVs would prevent the loss of XP from soldier death, and that would balance out the the loss of XP from fielding fewer soldiers.

That is wrong.

Or at least it is wrong for me - and I would guess that it is wrong for everyone who can survive through April without using SHIVs. I changed my mind because of the rank totals in my latest campaign. I keep track of the total ranks reached at the end of each month (not the same as total XP, but pretty close) and in my latest SHIV-free campaign I had 195 total ranks by the end of July,⁶ whereas in my previous SHIV-full campaign, I had only 178 total ranks. The campaign before that was even worse, with only 147 ranks.

Looking over the details it is even more clear. The campaign without SHIVs had fewer soldier rewards, fewer missions, and also fewer deaths.

Clearly, the absence of SHIVs helps my barracks grow faster, and so the only reason to keep using SHIVs is because they might prevent disaster, such as a full squad wipe. And to be fair, SHIVs are strong. But there are other ways to tilt those hard missions to your advantage - such as bringing 2 rocketeers.

Also, SHIVs cost a lot of money, and at a time when I need every penny for satellites and interceptors. I no longer think they are worth it.

---

XP Optimization

The biggest boost in the early game comes from the Officer Training School upgrade; Squad Size I. And here is the thing, by gaming soldier XP, we can make that happen sooner.

To build the OTS we need to have at least one soldier at CPL rank. Then 40 ranks total are needed to purchase Squad Size I. The goal should be to reach that threshold as soon as possible - ideally in early April. And the way to speed it up is by maximizing the number of rookies promoted to specialist rank, because that is the cheapest rank in terms of XP.

RANK      XP    TOTAL
-----------------------
SPEC     120      120
LCPL     230      350
 CPL     350      700
 SGT     500     1200

As you can see, the XP cost of each additional rank grows exponentially.

Obviously, I am not planning to field all rookie squads - I would just lose. What I want to do is just keep taking rookies on missions, and make sure that every rookie on an abduction mission gets a kill and promotes.⁷ And then I want to leave several of these specialist rank soldiers in the barracks, growing my barracks wider, rather than higher, because that maximizes XP efficiency.

Also, once I start getting close to 40 ranks, I will take soldiers knowing that they will be able to promote, and knowing exactly how many kills they need to promote. It is not uncommon for the last mission before I buy Squad Size I to have 5-6 soldiers promoted.

---

Sell More!

One of the bigger mistakes I made this campaign was not selling more stuff. I should have been aggressive in the gray market. At one point I was sitting on over 400 meld, 400 alloy, and 300 elerium… why?

Two more Interceptors might have prevented that disaster in June. Instead I told myself that the laser cannons were nearly here - and tried to save some cash. In the end, that probably cost me a couple downed UFOs, which would have repaid the investment.

Lesson re-learned: don’t short change your Hangar.

It can also be hard to know exactly what to sell. Of the resources, meld is often the big money maker. We need to sell a lot of meld in the early game - but not all of it. I want to have 300ish when MECs are available. Also we sell some alloy but not too much (alloys are needed for Gauss Weapons). I try to have 200ish alloy when Gauss Research hits. Elerium is safer to sell, and the reserve can be a bit smaller.

Also, to help decide what artifacts to sell there is this incredibly useful tab on Xwynns Long War excel file.

You will need to make a copy of the file to your own google account in order to modify it. To use the chart, first set your planned research in columns A & B (most of the values are 1, as you only need to complete a research once. But if you want 2 chem grenades, you would set that value to 2). As you complete research, and build equipment adjust the value in column B.⁸

Row 2 will then update with the total remaining artifacts needed.

---

This post is followed by: Long War - Summer Strategy.

1. 2pm gives us 10 hours of leeway for time slippage.

2. 3pm gives up 9 hours of leeway for time slippage.

3. If the abduction and ufo mission schedules are truly random then the first mission should occur before the 1st deadline on about 73% of campaigns.

4. Assuming you meet your first deadline, then the 2nd mission should occur before the 2nd deadline on 87% of campaigns.

5. I think I quit that campaign in disgust - in retrospect an overreaction.

6. Using July because that is when MECs usually start replacing SHIVs in my standard squad comp.

7. Rookies should automatically promote to SPEC on UFO missions, but not on Abductions or Council missions.

8. Column A is your planned research, and doesn’t affect the count - when you start a new campaign you should copy the values from column A back into column B. This way the document stores your plan, and your running total.