Long War has a better difficulty curve than EU/EW - it actually gets harder for a few months before getting easier. The April to June period is always exciting, and often tragic.
If you are an incredible player who rarely ever loses soldiers, using a SHIV is not optimal for barracks growth. But that is not most players.
If a player is losing a soldier every third mission, then they are better served by using SHIVs and this is not a compromise as it will help their barracks grow faster. This happens for 2 reasons. The SHIV takes the fall, saving a soldier and his accumulated XP, and because the squad is stronger with a SHIV present, so there are fewer casualties.
To express this mathematically:
X = chance that a soldier dies without a SHIV on mission
Y = chance that a soldier dies with a SHIV on mission
A = XP lost from soldier death (close to avg. squad XP)
B = Mission XP reduced by soldier death ~240 (dead soldier doesn't gain XP ~120, and other soldiers get less XP ~120)
If you have a soldier die every 5th mission in early April without SHIVs you are better off using SHIVs. As your soldiers go up in XP the percentage will drop. When your average soldier is a SGT, a SHIV only needs to save a soldier 10% of the time to be justified as XP preservation, however, when your average soldier is a SGT, SHIVs are not as strong, and are less likely to prevent casualties. By the time you have MSGTs, an ordinary SHIV is probably a liability, and taking one instead of a soldier is more likely to result in soldier death.
April is an obscene difficulty increase from March - and it's really all due to floaters, and how the game spams floaters.
You go from sectoids/drones and possibly a few thin men to:
* 6 hp floaters - or more if leader/navigator
* elevation aim bonus
* unremovable half cover when your squad is still junior with piss poor aim, abilities, and weapons
* extreme mobility making flanks a serious problem
* you won't have squad size 7 yet for the first several missions
It can be a bit much, especially when RNG decides to throw you some heavy/swarming missions with 12-16 floaters in the first 15 days or so. And this WILL happen.
It starts to smooth out around May when your soldiers get better, and you can get better tactical upgrades
If you are an incredible player who rarely ever loses soldiers, using a SHIV is not optimal for barracks growth. But that is not most players.
If a player is losing a soldier every third mission, then they are better served by using SHIVs and this is not a compromise as it will help their barracks grow faster. This happens for 2 reasons. The SHIV takes the fall, saving a soldier and his accumulated XP, and because the squad is stronger with a SHIV present, so there are fewer casualties.
To express this mathematically:
X = chance that a soldier dies without a SHIV on mission
Y = chance that a soldier dies with a SHIV on mission
A = XP lost from soldier death (close to avg. squad XP)
B = Mission XP reduced by soldier death ~240 (dead soldier doesn't gain XP ~120, and other soldiers get less XP ~120)
C = amount of XP lost by bring a SHIV along. ~150
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If (X - Y) * (A +B) > C Bring a SHIV
Using the approximate values above and 500 XP as average squad XP for early April we get...
X - Y > 150 / 770
or about 20%.
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If you have a soldier die every 5th mission in early April without SHIVs you are better off using SHIVs. As your soldiers go up in XP the percentage will drop. When your average soldier is a SGT, a SHIV only needs to save a soldier 10% of the time to be justified as XP preservation, however, when your average soldier is a SGT, SHIVs are not as strong, and are less likely to prevent casualties. By the time you have MSGTs, an ordinary SHIV is probably a liability, and taking one instead of a soldier is more likely to result in soldier death.
April is an obscene difficulty increase from March - and it's really all due to floaters, and how the game spams floaters.
You go from sectoids/drones and possibly a few thin men to:
* 6 hp floaters - or more if leader/navigator
* elevation aim bonus
* unremovable half cover when your squad is still junior with piss poor aim, abilities, and weapons
* extreme mobility making flanks a serious problem
* you won't have squad size 7 yet for the first several missions
It can be a bit much, especially when RNG decides to throw you some heavy/swarming missions with 12-16 floaters in the first 15 days or so. And this WILL happen.
It starts to smooth out around May when your soldiers get better, and you can get better tactical upgrades